Citizens Foreign Exchange: Your Foreign FiX for Wednesday, December 12
 
Citizens Commercial Banking logo Citizens Commercial Banking logo
Citizens Global Markets
Foreign Exchange
Citizens Commercial Banking logo
 
Trading Desk Direct: 888.821.3600     
 
 
Your Foreign FiX
Wednesday, December 12, 2018
 
U.S. equity futures and interest rates are trading higher as increasing hope on trade improves risk sentiment.  Market bulls may have tempered enthusiasm after morning gains evaporated yesterday in the Dow by days end.  Getting less attention has been the move in the Dow transports, which has dropped 9% in the month of December, as concerns over global growth remain in place.  The U.S. 10 year yield is trading at 2.89%, the high of the week, after CPI data was as expected, although it is well below the nearly 3% level at the start of the month.  The dollar is losing ground this morning, as Sterling gains nearly 1%, as Prime Minister May is expected to survive her confidence vote.  The Bloomberg dollar index is trading at 1209, down 25 bps from yesterday, but nearly unchanged from the start of the month.  Despite a more dovish Fed forecast for 2019, market volatility and trade uncertainty has supported the dollar.
Canada: USDCAD opens the day in the mid-1.3300s after brief visits above the 1.3400 figure yesterday. Loonie resilience continues to be attributed to the oil correlation with oil up 1.8% in trading yesterday. Today oil (WTI) is up $1 to $52.65. With no economics of note for Canada, the market focused on US CPI which came in as expected leaving the pair unaffected. Continue to monitor oil movements and trade news for direction as the pair continues to trade in the 1.3250-1.3450 range. Support comes in today at 1.3318 then 1.3275. Resistance comes in at 1.3445 then 1.3470.
China: USD/China is lower as global equities rally though the catalyst for the optimism is unclear. Specific to recent China headlines, Liu He confirmed that China is moving forward with lower auto tariffs, which in the US mostly helps BMW, M Benz, and Ford. A Canadian judge released Huawei CFO Meng on bail after a marathon hearing. However, the US is now also reportedly considering a China travel warning after Beijing detained a Canadian ex-diplomat yesterday. Meanwhile, China’s Nov broad credit measure (TSF + govt bonds - equity) growth continued to moderate to 10.6% y/y (v 11.0% in Oct). CNH returns to hover around the 100 day moving avg, and is currently at 6.8875.
Europe: EURUSD consolidated near the 1.1325 level overnight as market participants saw some geopolitical tensions begin to fade of the past few trading days.  Trade negotiations between the US and China weigh less on the pair this morning after signs of positive sentiment build following the Chinese agreement to reduce the magnitude of automobile tariffs and buy US soybeans together with the partial release of Huawei CFO Meng.  In the EU, industrial production figures for the month of October were much better than expected, adding a minority share of optimism in an otherwise bleak macroeconomic environment and may have somewhat of an impact on the rhetoric of tomorrows much anticipated ECB meeting, of which the committee is expected to announce the end of the long-term bond buying program while keeping interest rates at historic lows.  In the US, inflation rose at 2.2% YoY matching expectations and will likely keep the FED interest rate hikes near the previous trajectory.
 
 
Percentage Change
 
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
24M
USDCAD
0.98%
2.92%
2.78%
3.89%
3.97%
1.88%
USDCNH
-1.11%
0.75%
7.51%
9.13%
3.90%
-0.58%
EURUSD
1.12%
-2.43%
-3.41%
-8.55%
-3.39%
6.67%
 
 
Annualized Forward Differential
 
1M
3M
6M
9M
12M
24M
USDCAD
1.10%
0.87%
0.78%
0.73%
0.69%
0.61%
USDCNH
0.38%
0.50%
0.46%
0.43%
0.42%
0.46%
EURUSD
3.77%
3.20%
3.19%
3.22%
3.20%
3.07%
 
 
Implied Volatilty
 
3M
6M
9M
12M
24M
6M-RR
USDCAD
6.91%
7.15%
7.34%
7.50%
7.88%
0.64%
USDCNH
6.33%
6.35%
6.37%
6.42%
6.68%
1.05%
EURUSD
7.39%
7.56%
7.65%
7.72%
8.08%
-0.74%
USDCAD range-bound for the past week
USDCAD remains center of trend channel
EUR/USD jumps on Italian/EU budget relief news
 
Read our technical documentation to learn more about this data.
Questions, or thinking of trading? Contact the Foreign Exchange Trading Desk direct at 888.821.3600.
Share with a colleague.  
Download as PDF  
Get just the daily FiX information you want – set your preferences
Subscribe to the Citizens Daily Foreign FiX email.
Send us an email with a comment or question about the Citizens Daily FiX email.
This document has been prepared for discussion and informational purposes only by Citizens Bank, N.A. (Citizens). In the preparation of this document, Citizens has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. Citizens makes no representation or warranty (expressed or implied) of any nature, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability of any kind, with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this document. The information in this document is subject to change without notice and Citizens does not undertake a duty or responsibility to update these materials.
 
Citizens is not acting as an advisor or fiduciary in any respect in connection with providing this information, and no information or material contained herein is to be relied upon for the purpose of making or communicating investment or other decisions nor construed as either projections or predictions. In no event should the information be considered recommendations to enter into transactions. Citizens and its affiliates, connected companies, employees or clients may have an interest in the financial instruments mentioned in this document.
 
To ensure that you receive our emails, please add mail@citizenscommercial.com to your address book.
 
Privacy and Security:
Please do not reply to this email. For inquiries kindly call 877.550.5933. Keeping your financial information secure is one of our most important responsibilities. We will never ask you to send sensitive information via email or via a link in an email. If you receive a suspicious email claiming to be from Citizens Commercial Banking please forward it to: abuse@citizensbank.com. For an explanation of how we manage customer information, please read our Privacy Notice.
 
To opt-out of future promotional emails, please click here.
 
Citizens Bank | One Citizens Plaza | Providence, RI 02903

©2024 Citizens Financial Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Banking products and services are offered by Citizens Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Securities products and services are offered through Citizens Capital Markets, Inc., Member FINRA, SIPC. Citizens Bank & Citizens Commercial Banking are brand names of Citizens Bank, N.A. Citizens Capital Markets is a brand name of Citizens Financial Group, Inc.